Revenue by segment flowing through costs to profit (FY2024) | Source: Apple FY2024 10-K Filing
FY2024 data from Apple FY2024 10-K Filing
| Segment | What They Sell | Revenue | % of Total | Op. Income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | N/A | $201.2B |
51%
|
$80.0B | 40% |
| Services | N/A | $96.2B |
25%
|
$35.0B | 36% |
| Wearables & Home | N/A | $37.0B |
9%
|
$10.0B | 27% |
| Mac | N/A | $29.9B |
8%
|
$8.5B | 28% |
| iPad | N/A | $26.7B |
7%
|
$7.5B | 28% |
Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense
Fair Value: $147.71
-46.6% Downside
Stock appears overvalued with 46.6% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) currently trades at $276.49, representing a -46.6% premium to our calculated fair value of $147.71.
Key Strengths: Strong balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.4x); High profit margins (42.2%); Strong revenue growth (15.7%).
Key Risks: No significant concerns identified.
The company generates $106.31B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $292.46.
| Criterion | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤4 operating segments | PASS | Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy. |
| Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue | PASS | Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K. |
| ≤3 material geographic regions | PASS | Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions). |
| No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity | PASS | Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items. |
Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
| Market Capitalization | $4063.83B |
| (+) Total Debt | $90.68B |
| (-) Cash & Equivalents | $35.93B |
| Net Debt | $54.74B |
| Enterprise Value | $4118.57B |
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 0.38x | Very Strong |
| Interest Coverage | N/A | N/A |
| Debt / Equity | 102.6% | High Leverage |
| Current Ratio | 0.97 | Review - may struggle with short-term obligations |
Overall: Balance sheet is adequate with some areas to monitor.
Industry: Consumer Electronics | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-05 | Source: Yahoo Finance
| Company | Market Cap | P/E | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL (Target) | $4063.8B | 34.1x | 29.8x | 26.7x | 27.0% |
| SONY | $131.6B | 17.0x | 18.4x | 0.3x | 8.9% |
| DELL | $81.8B | 15.7x | 10.6x | 9.8x | 5.0% |
| HPQ | $18.5B | 7.2x | 6.3x | 5.7x | 4.6% |
| Peer Average (excl. target) | - | 16.3x | 10.6x | 5.7x | 4.8% |
| Method | Inputs | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (TTM EPS) | EPS: $7.46 x 19.8x P/E | $147.71 |
| Equity (Forward EPS) | EPS: $9.28 x 19.8x P/E | $183.71 |
| EV-Based (EBITDA) | EBITDA: $144.75B x 6.9x | $64.30 |
| Headline Fair Value | Median value used (spread 90.5% exceeds 15% threshold) | $147.71 |
Assessment: Strong positive profile with multiple favorable factors.
AAPL trades at 37.1x TTM P/E and 29.8x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 16.3x TTM and 10.6x Forward P/E.
The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $106.31B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations.
41 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $205 to $350, with a mean of $292.
19.79 - Neutral/Low Fear
Score: 44/100
143.16
SPY YTD: 14.9% | RSP YTD: 12.4%
Tracking 3 customers, 4 suppliers | Did they beat or miss? What does it mean for AAPL?
| Company | What They Buy | Last Quarter | Revenue QoQ | 6-Mo Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc. | Retail distribution |
BEAT +25%
2025-10-30
|
7.4% | 9.0% |
| Best Buy Co., Inc. | Retail distribution |
BEAT +7%
2025-11-25
|
2.5% | 5.0% |
| Target Corporation | Retail distribution |
BEAT +4%
2025-11-19
|
0.2% | 14.1% |
| Company | What They Supply | Last Quarter | Revenue QoQ | 6-Mo Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | A-series/M-series chip fab |
BEAT +6%
2026-01-15
|
nan% | 40.9% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated | Cellular modems |
BEAT +1%
2026-02-04
|
8.7% | 2.6% |
| Broadcom Inc. | Wireless chips |
BEAT +4%
2025-12-11
|
12.9% | 5.5% |
| Honeywell International Inc. | Sensors and components |
MISS -80%
2026-01-29
|
nan% | 14.2% |
Track Record: 8 beats, 0 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 100% Beat Rate
| Date | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | $2.67 | $2.84 | BEAT | 6.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | $1.77 | $1.85 | BEAT | 4.5% |
| 2025-07-31 | $1.43 | $1.57 | BEAT | 9.5% |
| 2025-05-01 | $1.63 | $1.65 | BEAT | 1.5% |
| 2025-01-30 | $2.35 | $2.40 | BEAT | 2.3% |
| 2024-10-31 | $1.60 | $1.64 | BEAT | 2.3% |
| 2024-08-01 | $1.34 | $1.40 | BEAT | 4.3% |
| 2024-05-02 | $1.51 | $1.53 | BEAT | 1.5% |
All financial data sourced from:
Click any colored number or source label throughout the report to view its source.
This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and SEC EDGAR and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Current: Full Fiscal Year 2025 | Data Source: SEC EDGAR
Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.
This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:
A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.
Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.
Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.
Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.
By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.
Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.
For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.
Watch for: