Revenue by segment flowing through costs to profit (FY2024) | Source: AMD 2024 10-K Filing
FY2024 data from AMD 2024 10-K Filing
| Segment | What They Sell | Revenue | % of Total | Op. Income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI GPUs sold to cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google) and enterprises for AI training and data processing | $12.6B |
43%
|
$2.5B | 20% |
| Client | Ryzen CPUs for consumer laptops and desktops, sold to PC makers like HP, Dell, Lenovo | $6.5B |
22%
|
$1.2B | 18% |
| Gaming | Custom APUs for Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox, plus Radeon GPUs for PC gaming | $6.2B |
21%
|
$0.9B | 15% |
| Embedded | Chips for cars, industrial equipment, medical devices, and networking - acquired via Xilinx | $3.9B |
13%
|
$1.1B | 28% |
Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense
Fair Value: $92.16
-62.6% Downside
Stock appears overvalued with 62.6% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) currently trades at $246.27, representing a -62.6% premium to our calculated fair value of $92.16.
Key Strengths: Net cash position (negative net debt); Strong interest coverage (26.3x); Strong revenue growth (35.6%).
Key Risks: No significant concerns identified.
The company generates $3.25B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $289.23.
| Criterion | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤4 operating segments | PASS | Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy. |
| Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue | PASS | Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K. |
| ≤3 material geographic regions | PASS | Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions). |
| No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity | PASS | Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items. |
Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. It operates in three segments: Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded. The company offers artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, x86 microprocessors, and graphics processing units (GPUs) as standalone devices or as incorporated into accelerated processing units, chipsets, and data center and professional GPUs; and embedded processors and semi-custom system-on-chip (SoC) products, microprocessor and SoC development services and technology, data processing units, field programmable gate arrays (FPGA), system on modules, smart network interface cards, and adaptive SoC products. It provides processors under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen AI, AMD Ryzen PRO, AMD Ryzen Threadripper, AMD Ryzen Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, and AMD PRO A-Series brands; graphics under the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon graphics; professional graphics under the AMD Radeon Pro graphics brand; and AI and general-purpose compute infrastructure for hyperscale providers. The company offers data center graphics under the AMD Instinct accelerators and Radeon PRO V-series brands; server microprocessors under the AMD EPYC brand; low power solutions under the AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, and AMD R-Series and G-Series brands; FPGA products under the Virtex-6, Virtex-7, Virtex UltraScale+, Kintex-7, Kintex UltraScale, Kintex UltraScale+, Artix-7, Artix UltraScale+, Spartan-6, and Spartan-7 brands; adaptive SOCs under the Zynq-7000, Zynq UltraScale+ MPSoC, Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoCs, Versal HBM, Versal Premium, Versal Prime, Versal AI Core, Versal AI Edge, Vitis, and Vivado brands; and compute and network acceleration board products under the Alveo and Pensando brands. It serves original equipment and design manufacturers, public cloud service providers, system integrators, distributors, and add-in-board manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
| Market Capitalization | $400.94B |
| (+) Total Debt | $3.87B |
| (-) Cash & Equivalents | $7.24B |
| Net Debt | ($3.37B) - Net Cash |
| Enterprise Value | $397.56B |
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt / EBITDA | -0.56x | Net Cash Position - More cash than debt |
| Interest Coverage | 26.3x | Excellent |
| Debt / Equity | 6.4% | Conservative |
| Current Ratio | 2.31 | Healthy - can easily pay short-term bills |
Overall: Balance sheet is strong with conservative leverage.
Industry: Semiconductors | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-02 | Source: Yahoo Finance
| Company | Market Cap | P/E | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $4519.0B | 46.1x | 24.2x | 40.8x | 53.0% |
| AVGO | $1569.8B | 69.4x | 23.1x | 4.7x | 36.2% |
| AMD (Target) | $400.9B | 128.3x | 37.3x | 63.1x | 10.3% |
| INTC | $243.7B | 0.0x | 49.3x | 20.1x | -0.5% |
| TXN | $204.4B | 41.3x | 28.7x | 25.4x | 28.3% |
| QCOM | $163.5B | 30.5x | 12.4x | 12.0x | 12.5% |
| Peer Average (excl. target) | - | 43.7x | 23.6x | 20.1x | 32.2% |
| Method | Inputs | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (TTM EPS) | EPS: $1.92 x 48.0x P/E | $92.16 |
| Equity (Forward EPS) | EPS: $6.61 x 48.0x P/E | $317.17 |
| EV-Based (EBITDA) | EBITDA: $6.04B x 22.1x | $84.04 |
| Headline Fair Value | Median value used (spread 141.8% exceeds 15% threshold) | $92.16 |
Assessment: Strong positive profile with multiple favorable factors.
AMD trades at 128.3x TTM P/E and 37.3x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 43.7x TTM and 23.6x Forward P/E. Note: The significant gap between TTM and Forward P/E suggests analysts expect substantial earnings improvement.
The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $3.25B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations.
46 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $210 to $380, with a mean of $289.
16.55 - Neutral/Low Fear
Score: 61/100
143.65
SPY YTD: 17.7% | RSP YTD: 12.3%
Tracking 5 customers, 3 suppliers | Did they beat or miss? What does it mean for AMD?
| Company | What They Buy | Last Quarter | Revenue QoQ | 6-Mo Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation | Data center/AI GPUs, Xbox chips |
BEAT +6%
2026-01-28
|
4.6% | -20.7% |
| Sony Group Corporation | PlayStation custom APUs |
MET
2025-11-10
|
18.5% | -10.7% |
| HP Inc. | PC processors |
BEAT +1%
2025-11-25
|
5.1% | -19.0% |
| Dell Technologies Inc. | PC/Server processors |
BEAT +5%
2025-11-25
|
-9.3% | -7.8% |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | Data center CPUs/GPUs |
BEAT +25%
2025-10-30
|
7.4% | 14.8% |
| Company | What They Supply | Last Quarter | Revenue QoQ | 6-Mo Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Chip fabrication (primary foundry) |
BEAT +6%
2026-01-15
|
nan% | 43.6% |
| ASML Holding N.V. | Lithography equipment |
MISS -3%
2026-01-27
|
29.3% | 106.5% |
| Lam Research Corporation | Wafer fabrication equipment |
BEAT +9%
2026-01-28
|
0.4% | 142.2% |
Track Record: 5 beats, 0 misses, 3 in-line out of 8 quarters | 62% Beat Rate
| Date | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | $0.68 | $0.75 | BEAT | 10.0% |
| 2025-08-05 | $-0.05 | $0.54 | BEAT | 1240.2% |
| 2025-05-06 | $0.93 | $0.96 | BEAT | 2.8% |
| 2025-02-04 | $1.09 | $1.09 | MET | 0.4% |
| 2024-10-29 | $0.92 | $0.92 | MET | 0.5% |
| 2024-07-30 | $0.68 | $0.69 | BEAT | 1.3% |
| 2024-04-30 | $0.61 | $0.62 | BEAT | 2.0% |
| 2024-01-30 | $0.77 | $0.77 | MET | -0.0% |
All financial data sourced from:
Click any blue number throughout the report to view its source.
This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.
This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:
A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.
Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.
Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.
Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.
By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.
Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.
For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.
Watch for: