Understanding Asset Value

Report Generated
2026-02-02 16:03:14
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
$246.27
Price from Yahoo Finance
Today: +4.03% | YTD: +10.2%

How Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Makes Money

Revenue by segment flowing through costs to profit (FY2024) | Source: AMD 2024 10-K Filing

Revenue
$32.0B
Gross Profit
$15.5B
48% margin
Operating Income
$3.0B
9% margin
Net Income
$3.3B
10% margin

Revenue & Profit by Segment

FY2024 data from AMD 2024 10-K Filing

Segment What They Sell Revenue % of Total Op. Income Margin
Data Center EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI GPUs sold to cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google) and enterprises for AI training and data processing $12.6B
43%
$2.5B 20%
Client Ryzen CPUs for consumer laptops and desktops, sold to PC makers like HP, Dell, Lenovo $6.5B
22%
$1.2B 18%
Gaming Custom APUs for Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox, plus Radeon GPUs for PC gaming $6.2B
21%
$0.9B 15%
Embedded Chips for cars, industrial equipment, medical devices, and networking - acquired via Xilinx $3.9B
13%
$1.1B 28%

Current Price

Price $246.27
52-Week High $267.08
52-Week Low $76.48

Market Data

Market Cap $400.94B
Shares Outstanding 1.63B
Beta 1.95

Valuation Ratios

P/E (TTM) 128.27x
P/E (Forward) 37.27x
EV/EBITDA 63.10x

Financial Health

Profit Margin 10.3%
ROE 5.3%
Revenue Growth 35.6%

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) - Cash That Can't Lie

$3.25B 0.81% Yield
$6.41B OCF - $0.96B CapEx - $2.06B Buybacks - $0.11B Interest = $3.25B

Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense

AVOID

Fair Value: $92.16

-62.6% Downside

Stock appears overvalued with 62.6% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.

Investment Verdict

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) currently trades at $246.27, representing a -62.6% premium to our calculated fair value of $92.16.

Key Strengths: Net cash position (negative net debt); Strong interest coverage (26.3x); Strong revenue growth (35.6%).

Key Risks: No significant concerns identified.

The company generates $3.25B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $289.23.

Business Simplicity Filter

CriterionStatusNotes
≤4 operating segments PASS Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy.
Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue PASS Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K.
≤3 material geographic regions PASS Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions).
No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity PASS Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items.

Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION

Company Profile

Sector Technology
Industry Semiconductors
Employees 28,000
Country United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. It operates in three segments: Data Center, Client and Gaming, and Embedded. The company offers artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, x86 microprocessors, and graphics processing units (GPUs) as standalone devices or as incorporated into accelerated processing units, chipsets, and data center and professional GPUs; and embedded processors and semi-custom system-on-chip (SoC) products, microprocessor and SoC development services and technology, data processing units, field programmable gate arrays (FPGA), system on modules, smart network interface cards, and adaptive SoC products. It provides processors under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen AI, AMD Ryzen PRO, AMD Ryzen Threadripper, AMD Ryzen Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, and AMD PRO A-Series brands; graphics under the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon graphics; professional graphics under the AMD Radeon Pro graphics brand; and AI and general-purpose compute infrastructure for hyperscale providers. The company offers data center graphics under the AMD Instinct accelerators and Radeon PRO V-series brands; server microprocessors under the AMD EPYC brand; low power solutions under the AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, and AMD R-Series and G-Series brands; FPGA products under the Virtex-6, Virtex-7, Virtex UltraScale+, Kintex-7, Kintex UltraScale, Kintex UltraScale+, Artix-7, Artix UltraScale+, Spartan-6, and Spartan-7 brands; adaptive SOCs under the Zynq-7000, Zynq UltraScale+ MPSoC, Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoCs, Versal HBM, Versal Premium, Versal Prime, Versal AI Core, Versal AI Edge, Vitis, and Vivado brands; and compute and network acceleration board products under the Alveo and Pensando brands. It serves original equipment and design manufacturers, public cloud service providers, system integrators, distributors, and add-in-board manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Enterprise Value Calculation

Market Capitalization $400.94B
(+) Total Debt $3.87B
(-) Cash & Equivalents $7.24B
Net Debt ($3.37B) - Net Cash
Enterprise Value $397.56B
EV = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = $400.94B + $3.87B - $7.24B = $397.56B

Leverage & Solvency

MetricValueWhat It Means
Net Debt / EBITDA -0.56x Net Cash Position - More cash than debt
Interest Coverage 26.3x Excellent
Debt / Equity 6.4% Conservative
Current Ratio 2.31 Healthy - can easily pay short-term bills

Overall: Balance sheet is strong with conservative leverage.

Peer Comparison

Industry: Semiconductors | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-02 | Source: Yahoo Finance

CompanyMarket CapP/EForward P/EEV/EBITDAProfit Margin
NVDA $4519.0B 46.1x 24.2x 40.8x 53.0%
AVGO $1569.8B 69.4x 23.1x 4.7x 36.2%
AMD (Target) $400.9B 128.3x 37.3x 63.1x 10.3%
INTC $243.7B 0.0x 49.3x 20.1x -0.5%
TXN $204.4B 41.3x 28.7x 25.4x 28.3%
QCOM $163.5B 30.5x 12.4x 12.0x 12.5%
Peer Average (excl. target) - 43.7x 23.6x 20.1x 32.2%

Intrinsic Value Calculation

MethodInputsFair Value
Equity (TTM EPS) EPS: $1.92 x 48.0x P/E $92.16
Equity (Forward EPS) EPS: $6.61 x 48.0x P/E $317.17
EV-Based (EBITDA) EBITDA: $6.04B x 22.1x $84.04
Headline Fair Value Median value used (spread 141.8% exceeds 15% threshold) $92.16
Fair Multiples Basis: Fair P/E of 48.0x and EV/EBITDA of 22.1x. Multiples adjusted for above-average growth.

Sensitivity Analysis

P/E Multiple Sensitivity (using TTM EPS)

Low (46x)
Base (48x)
High (50x)
$88.32
$92.16
$96.00

EV/EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

Low (21x)
Base (22x)
High (23x)
$80.33
$84.04
$87.74

Red / Green Dashboard

Green Factors (Positive)

  • Net cash position (negative net debt)
  • Strong interest coverage (26.3x)
  • Strong revenue growth (35.6%)
  • Positive analyst consensus (buy)
  • Active share buyback program

Red Factors (Concerns)

  • No significant concerns identified

Assessment: Strong positive profile with multiple favorable factors.

Seasoned Analyst Perspective

Valuation Context

AMD trades at 128.3x TTM P/E and 37.3x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 43.7x TTM and 23.6x Forward P/E. Note: The significant gap between TTM and Forward P/E suggests analysts expect substantial earnings improvement.

Cash Flow Quality

The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $3.25B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations.

Analyst Consensus

46 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $210 to $380, with a mean of $289.

Market Sentiment Indicators

VIX
VIX (Fear Index)

16.55 - Neutral/Low Fear

Neutral/Low Fear
F&G
CNN Fear & Greed Index

Score: 61/100

Greed
SKEW
CBOE SKEW Index (Tail Risk)

143.65

Elevated Tail Risk Concerns
MKT
Market Breadth

SPY YTD: 17.7% | RSP YTD: 12.3%

Moderately Narrow

Customer & Supplier Earnings Analysis

Tracking 5 customers, 3 suppliers | Did they beat or miss? What does it mean for AMD?

Supply Chain Signals:
  • BULLISH: Amazon.com, Inc. beat earnings by 25% - strong demand signal for AMD
  • 4 of 5 customers beat earnings - positive demand outlook
  • Suppliers up +97.4% avg (6mo) - supply chain healthy

Customers (Who Buys From AMD)

Company What They Buy Last Quarter Revenue QoQ 6-Mo Stock
Microsoft Corporation Data center/AI GPUs, Xbox chips BEAT +6%
2026-01-28
4.6% -20.7%
Sony Group Corporation PlayStation custom APUs MET
2025-11-10
18.5% -10.7%
HP Inc. PC processors BEAT +1%
2025-11-25
5.1% -19.0%
Dell Technologies Inc. PC/Server processors BEAT +5%
2025-11-25
-9.3% -7.8%
Amazon.com, Inc. Data center CPUs/GPUs BEAT +25%
2025-10-30
7.4% 14.8%

Key Suppliers (Who Sells To AMD)

Company What They Supply Last Quarter Revenue QoQ 6-Mo Stock
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Chip fabrication (primary foundry) BEAT +6%
2026-01-15
nan% 43.6%
ASML Holding N.V. Lithography equipment MISS -3%
2026-01-27
29.3% 106.5%
Lam Research Corporation Wafer fabrication equipment BEAT +9%
2026-01-28
0.4% 142.2%

Earnings Surprise History (Last 8 Quarters)

Track Record: 5 beats, 0 misses, 3 in-line out of 8 quarters | 62% Beat Rate

DateEPS EstimateEPS ActualResultSurprise %
2025-11-04 $0.68 $0.75 BEAT 10.0%
2025-08-05 $-0.05 $0.54 BEAT 1240.2%
2025-05-06 $0.93 $0.96 BEAT 2.8%
2025-02-04 $1.09 $1.09 MET 0.4%
2024-10-29 $0.92 $0.92 MET 0.5%
2024-07-30 $0.68 $0.69 BEAT 1.3%
2024-04-30 $0.61 $0.62 BEAT 2.0%
2024-01-30 $0.77 $0.77 MET -0.0%
Average Earnings Surprise: 157.1% (Company tends to beat estimates)

Analyst Data

Price Targets

High Target $380.00
Mean Target $289.23
Low Target $210.00

Consensus

Recommendation buy
# of Analysts 46

Data Sources & Citations

All financial data sourced from:

Click any blue number throughout the report to view its source.

Disclaimer

This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Why Levered Free Cash Flow Matters

Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.

This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:

A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.

Why Customer & Supplier Earnings Matter

Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.

Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.

Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.

By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.

Why Segment Breakdown Matters

Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.

For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.

Watch for: