Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense
Fair Value: $385.44
+41.9% Upside
Stock appears undervalued with 41.9% upside to fair value. High confidence based on valuation spread and data quality.
The Cigna Group (CI) currently trades at $271.71, representing a 41.9% discount to our calculated fair value of $385.44.
Key Strengths: Positive analyst consensus (buy); Active share buyback program; Dividend yield: 2.19%.
Key Risks: High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA: 5.7x); Weak interest coverage (1.5x).
The company generates $8.63B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $326.92.
| Criterion | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤4 operating segments | PASS | Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy. |
| Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue | PASS | Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K. |
| ≤3 material geographic regions | PASS | Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions). |
| No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity | PASS | Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items. |
Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION
The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. Its Evernorth Health Services segment provides a range of coordinated and point solution health services, including pharmacy benefits, home delivery pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, distribution, and care delivery and management solutions to health plans, employers, government organizations, and health care providers. The company's Cigna Healthcare segment offers medical, pharmacy, behavioral health, dental, and other products and services for insured and self-insured customers; Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicare Part D plans for seniors, as well as individual health insurance plans; and health care coverage in its international markets, as well as health care benefits for mobile individuals and employees of multinational organizations. In addition, it offers permanent insurance contracts sold to corporations to provide coverage on the lives of certain employees for financing employer-paid future benefit obligations and stop loss insurance. The company distributes its products and services through insurance brokers and consultants; directly to employers, unions and other groups, or individuals; and private and public exchanges. The company was formerly known as Cigna Corporation and changed its name to The Cigna Group in February 2023. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut.
| Market Capitalization | $72.58B |
| (+) Total Debt | $34.04B |
| (-) Cash & Equivalents | $6.91B |
| Net Debt | $27.13B |
| Enterprise Value | $99.71B |
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 5.69x | High Leverage - Concern |
| Interest Coverage | 1.5x | Weak - Concern |
| Debt / Equity | 81.0% | Elevated |
| Current Ratio | 0.83 | Review - may struggle with short-term obligations |
Overall: Balance sheet shows elevated leverage - requires careful analysis.
Industry: Healthcare Plans | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-05 | Source: Yahoo Finance
| Company | Market Cap | P/E | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | $564.9B | 21.1x | 18.7x | 17.9x | 28.5% |
| ABBV | $383.7B | 172.3x | 13.7x | 0.0x | 6.9% |
| MRK | $295.6B | 15.9x | 12.0x | 11.0x | 28.1% |
| UNH | $249.9B | 14.8x | 13.8x | 13.0x | 2.7% |
| PFE | $152.3B | 19.0x | 9.4x | 7.8x | 12.4% |
| CI (Target) | $72.6B | 12.2x | 9.0x | 8.6x | 2.3% |
| Peer Average (excl. target) | - | 17.5x | 13.7x | 12.0x | 12.4% |
| Method | Inputs | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (TTM EPS) | EPS: $22.28 x 17.3x P/E | $385.44 |
| Equity (Forward EPS) | EPS: $30.34 x 17.3x P/E | $524.96 |
| EV-Based (EBITDA) | EBITDA: $4.77B x 11.9x | $110.88 |
| Headline Fair Value | Median value used (spread 121.6% exceeds 15% threshold) | $385.44 |
Assessment: Moderately positive profile. Green factors outweigh concerns.
CI trades at 12.2x TTM P/E and 9.0x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 17.5x TTM and 13.7x Forward P/E.
The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $8.63B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations. The 11.9% LFCF yield is attractive.
23 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $270 to $378, with a mean of $327.
19.21 - Neutral/Low Fear
Score: 39/100
143.16
SPY YTD: 14.9% | RSP YTD: 12.4%
No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.
Track Record: 7 beats, 1 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 88% Beat Rate
| Date | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | $7.64 | $7.83 | BEAT | 2.5% |
| 2025-07-31 | $7.15 | $7.20 | BEAT | 0.7% |
| 2025-05-02 | $6.35 | $6.74 | BEAT | 6.2% |
| 2025-01-30 | $7.82 | $6.64 | MISS | -15.1% |
| 2024-10-31 | $7.25 | $7.51 | BEAT | 3.5% |
| 2024-08-01 | $6.42 | $6.72 | BEAT | 4.7% |
| 2024-05-02 | $6.22 | $6.47 | BEAT | 4.0% |
| 2024-02-02 | $6.54 | $6.79 | BEAT | 3.8% |
All financial data sourced from:
Click any colored number or source label throughout the report to view its source.
This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and SEC EDGAR and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Current: Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) | Data Source: SEC EDGAR
Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.
This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:
A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.
Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.
Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.
Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.
By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.
Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.
For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.
Watch for: