Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance
Fair Value: $127.13
-27.3% Downside
Stock appears overvalued with 27.3% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) currently trades at $174.75, representing a -27.3% premium to our calculated fair value of $127.13.
Key Strengths: Strong balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.0x); Strong interest coverage (14.3x); Low short interest.
Key Risks: Declining revenue (-6.0%).
Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $182.21.
| Criterion | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤4 operating segments | PASS | Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy. |
| Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue | PASS | Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K. |
| ≤3 material geographic regions | PASS | Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions). |
| No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity | PASS | Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items. |
Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil through pipelines; processing, transporting, storage, and marketing of natural gas; and carbon capture and storage, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
| Market Capitalization | $349.39B |
| (+) Total Debt | $41.54B |
| (-) Cash & Equivalents | $7.73B |
| Net Debt | $33.82B |
| Enterprise Value | $383.20B |
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 1.02x | Strong |
| Interest Coverage | 14.3x | Very Strong |
| Debt / Equity | 21.2% | Conservative |
| Current Ratio | N/A | Review - may struggle with short-term obligations |
Overall: Balance sheet is strong with conservative leverage.
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-02 | Source: Yahoo Finance
| Company | Market Cap | P/E | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $584.7B | 20.7x | 16.6x | 10.6x | 8.9% |
| CVX (Target) | $349.4B | 26.4x | 19.1x | 2.6x | 6.6% |
| SHEL | $214.7B | 15.5x | 11.8x | 10.1x | 5.4% |
| TTE | $153.9B | 11.6x | 11.1x | 5.5x | 7.7% |
| BP | $97.7B | 60.9x | 13.4x | 22.6x | 0.8% |
| Peer Average (excl. target) | - | 15.5x | 12.6x | 10.1x | 6.6% |
| Method | Inputs | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (TTM EPS) | EPS: $6.63 x 13.9x P/E | $92.16 |
| Equity (Forward EPS) | EPS: $9.15 x 13.9x P/E | $127.13 |
| EV-Based (EBITDA) | EBITDA: $33.20B x 9.1x | $135.52 |
| Headline Fair Value | Median value used (spread 36.7% exceeds 15% threshold) | $127.13 |
Assessment: Strong positive profile with multiple favorable factors.
CVX trades at 26.4x TTM P/E and 19.1x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 15.5x TTM and 12.6x Forward P/E.
Cash flow data unavailable for detailed analysis.
24 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $162 to $212, with a mean of $182.
16.52 - Neutral/Low Fear
Score: 61/100
143.65
SPY YTD: 17.7% | RSP YTD: 12.3%
No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.
Track Record: 6 beats, 2 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 75% Beat Rate
| Date | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | $1.44 | $1.52 | BEAT | 5.2% |
| 2025-10-31 | $1.53 | $1.82 | BEAT | 18.8% |
| 2025-08-01 | $1.74 | $1.77 | BEAT | 1.7% |
| 2025-05-02 | $2.15 | $2.18 | BEAT | 1.3% |
| 2025-01-31 | $1.94 | $1.84 | MISS | -5.4% |
| 2024-11-01 | $2.42 | $2.51 | BEAT | 3.9% |
| 2024-08-02 | $3.00 | $2.55 | MISS | -14.9% |
| 2024-04-26 | $2.91 | $2.93 | BEAT | 0.6% |
All financial data sourced from:
Click any blue number throughout the report to view its source.
This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.
This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:
A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.
Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.
Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.
Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.
By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.
Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.
For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.
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