Understanding Asset Value

Analysis Period: Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) SEC EDGAR
2026-02-05 16:16:31
IREN
IREN Limited
$39.79
Price from Yahoo Finance
Today: -11.46% | YTD: -6.8%

How IREN Limited Makes Money

Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance

Revenue
$0.7B
Gross Profit
$0.4B
65% margin
Operating Income
$0.0B
0% margin
Net Income
$0.5B
76% margin

Current Price

Price $39.79
52-Week High $76.87
52-Week Low $5.12

Market Data

Market Cap $13.06B
Shares Outstanding 0.33B
Beta 4.28

Valuation Ratios

P/E (TTM) 22.87x
P/E (Forward) 83.12x
EV/EBITDA 54.59x

Next Earnings Call

Date 2026-02-05
Time 16:00
Source Yahoo Finance

Financial Health

Profit Margin 76.0%
ROE 26.1%
Revenue Growth 355.4%

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) - Cash That Can't Lie

$-0.96B -7.33% Yield
$0.39B OCF - $1.27B CapEx - $0.02B Interest = $-0.96B

Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense

AVOID

Fair Value: $13.17

-66.9% Downside

Stock appears overvalued with 66.9% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.

Investment Verdict

IREN Limited (IREN) currently trades at $39.79, representing a -66.9% premium to our calculated fair value of $13.17.

Key Strengths: Net cash position (negative net debt); High profit margins (76.0%); Strong revenue growth (355.4%).

Key Risks: Weak interest coverage (0.0x); Elevated short interest (16.2% of float).

Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $84.85.

Business Simplicity Filter

CriterionStatusNotes
≤4 operating segments PASS Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy.
Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue PASS Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K.
≤3 material geographic regions PASS Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions).
No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity PASS Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items.

Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION

Company Profile

Industry Capital Markets
Employees 257
Country Australia

IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers. It also mines Bitcoin, a scarce digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operation of a peer-to-peer network of computers running the Bitcoin software. The company was formerly known as Iris Energy Limited and changed its name to IREN Limited in November 2024. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Enterprise Value Calculation

Market Capitalization $13.06B
(+) Total Debt $0.97B
(-) Cash & Equivalents $1.03B
Net Debt ($0.07B) - Net Cash
Enterprise Value $13.00B
EV = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = $13.06B + $0.97B - $1.03B = $13.00B

Leverage & Solvency

MetricValueWhat It Means
Net Debt / EBITDA -0.77x Net Cash Position - More cash than debt
Interest Coverage 0.0x Weak - Concern
Debt / Equity 33.6% Moderate
Current Ratio 5.52 Healthy - can easily pay short-term bills

Overall: Balance sheet is adequate with some areas to monitor.

Peer Comparison

Industry: Capital Markets | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-05 | Source: Yahoo Finance

CompanyMarket CapP/EForward P/EEV/EBITDAProfit Margin
IREN (Target) $13.1B 22.9x 83.1x 54.6x 76.0%
Peer Average (excl. target) - 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0%

Intrinsic Value Calculation

MethodInputsFair Value
Equity (TTM EPS) EPS: $1.74 x 27.5x P/E $47.85
Equity (Forward EPS) EPS: $0.48 x 27.5x P/E $13.17
EV-Based (EBITDA) EBITDA: $0.09B x 16.5x $4.53
Headline Fair Value Median value used (spread 198.3% exceeds 15% threshold) $13.17
Fair Multiples Basis: Fair P/E of 27.5x and EV/EBITDA of 16.5x. Multiples adjusted for strong profitability.

Sensitivity Analysis

P/E Multiple Sensitivity (using TTM EPS)

Low (26x)
Base (28x)
High (30x)
$44.37
$47.85
$51.33

EV/EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

Low (16x)
Base (16x)
High (18x)
$4.27
$4.53
$4.79

Red / Green Dashboard

Green Factors (Positive)

  • Net cash position (negative net debt)
  • High profit margins (76.0%)
  • Strong revenue growth (355.4%)
  • Positive analyst consensus (buy)

Red Factors (Concerns)

  • Weak interest coverage (0.0x)
  • Elevated short interest (16.2% of float)

Assessment: Moderately positive profile. Green factors outweigh concerns.

Seasoned Analyst Perspective

Valuation Context

IREN trades at 22.9x TTM P/E and 83.1x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 0.0x TTM and 0.0x Forward P/E.

Cash Flow Quality

Warning: Negative levered free cash flow indicates the company is consuming cash.

Analyst Consensus

13 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $39 to $136, with a mean of $85.

Market Sentiment Indicators

VIX
VIX (Fear Index)

21.59 - Elevated Fear

Elevated Fear
F&G
CNN Fear & Greed Index

Score: 33/100

Fear
SKEW
CBOE SKEW Index (Tail Risk)

143.16

Elevated Tail Risk Concerns
MKT
Market Breadth

SPY YTD: 13.0% | RSP YTD: 11.5%

Healthy Breadth

Supply Chain Analysis

No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.

Earnings Surprise History (Last 8 Quarters)

Track Record: 3 beats, 5 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 38% Beat Rate

DateEPS EstimateEPS ActualResultSurprise %
2025-11-06 $0.14 $0.01 MISS -94.4%
2025-08-28 $0.22 $0.21 MISS -2.5%
2025-05-14 $0.14 $0.11 MISS -25.5%
2025-02-12 $0.06 $0.09 BEAT 35.7%
2024-11-26 $-0.07 $-0.16 MISS -114.8%
2024-08-28 $0.03 $-0.16 MISS -638.3%
2024-02-15 $0.06 $0.08 BEAT 29.0%
2023-02-15 $-0.15 $-0.06 BEAT 63.4%
Average Earnings Surprise: -93.4% (Company tends to miss estimates)

Analyst Data

Price Targets

High Target $136.00
Mean Target $84.85
Low Target $39.00

Consensus

Recommendation buy
# of Analysts 13

Data Sources & Citations

Yahoo Finance
SEC EDGAR
CBOE
CNN
Derived / Calculated

All financial data sourced from:

Click any colored number or source label throughout the report to view its source.

Disclaimer

This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and SEC EDGAR and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Run Analysis with Different Period

Current: Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) | Data Source: SEC EDGAR

Why Levered Free Cash Flow Matters

Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.

This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:

A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.

Why Customer & Supplier Earnings Matter

Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.

Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.

Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.

By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.

Why Segment Breakdown Matters

Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.

For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.

Watch for: