Understanding Asset Value

Report Generated
2026-02-02 16:13:52
MSTR
Strategy Inc
$139.66
Price from Yahoo Finance
Today: -6.71% | YTD: -11.1%

How Strategy Inc Makes Money

Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance

Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Profit
$0.3B
70% margin
Operating Income
$-0.0B
-9% margin
Net Income
$7.9B
1667% margin

Current Price

Price $139.66
52-Week High $457.22
52-Week Low $138.00

Market Data

Market Cap $40.41B
Shares Outstanding 0.27B
Beta 3.54

Valuation Ratios

P/E (TTM) 5.73x
P/E (Forward) 2.85x
EV/EBITDA -55.07x

Financial Health

Profit Margin 1667.1%
ROE 25.6%
Revenue Growth 10.9%

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) - Cash That Can't Lie

$-0.62B -1.53% Yield
$-0.06B OCF - $37.49B CapEx - $0.07B Interest = $-0.62B

Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense

BUY

Fair Value: $1205.82

+763.4% Upside

Stock appears undervalued with 763.4% upside to fair value. High confidence based on valuation spread and data quality.

Investment Verdict

Strategy Inc (MSTR) currently trades at $139.66, representing a 763.4% discount to our calculated fair value of $1205.82.

Key Strengths: High profit margins (1667.1%).

Key Risks: Weak interest coverage (-0.6x); Elevated short interest (11.7% of float).

Wall Street consensus is strong_buy with a mean price target of $474.31.

Business Simplicity Filter

CriterionStatusNotes
≤4 operating segments PASS Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy.
Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue PASS Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K.
≤3 material geographic regions PASS Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions).
No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity PASS Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items.

Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION

Company Profile

Sector Technology
Employees 1,546
Country United States

Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. It also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making; and Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

Enterprise Value Calculation

Market Capitalization $40.41B
(+) Total Debt $8.22B
(-) Cash & Equivalents $0.05B
Net Debt $8.17B
Enterprise Value $48.58B
EV = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = $40.41B + $8.22B - $0.05B = $48.58B

Leverage & Solvency

MetricValueWhat It Means
Net Debt / EBITDA N/A N/A
Interest Coverage -0.6x Weak - Concern
Debt / Equity 14.1% Conservative
Current Ratio 0.66 Review - may struggle with short-term obligations

Overall: Balance sheet is adequate with some areas to monitor.

Peer Comparison

Industry: Software - Application | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-02 | Source: Yahoo Finance

CompanyMarket CapP/EForward P/EEV/EBITDAProfit Margin
INTU $135.6B 33.4x 18.4x 0.0x 21.2%
ADBE $122.8B 17.6x 11.1x 13.0x 30.0%
SNPS $87.6B 56.6x 27.1x 75.5x 18.9%
CDNS $78.8B 74.5x 35.9x 42.6x 20.4%
MSTR (Target) $40.4B 5.7x 2.8x -55.1x 1667.1%
ANSS N/A 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0%
Peer Average (excl. target) - 45.0x 22.8x 42.6x 20.4%

Intrinsic Value Calculation

MethodInputsFair Value
Equity (TTM EPS) EPS: $24.36 x 49.5x P/E $1205.82
Equity (Forward EPS) EPS: $49.07 x 49.5x P/E $2428.73
EV-Based (EBITDA) EBITDA: $-0.02B x 46.9x $-33.12
Headline Fair Value Median value used (spread 205.1% exceeds 15% threshold) $1205.82
Fair Multiples Basis: Fair P/E of 49.5x and EV/EBITDA of 46.9x. Multiples adjusted for strong profitability.

Sensitivity Analysis

P/E Multiple Sensitivity (using TTM EPS)

Low (48x)
Base (50x)
High (52x)
$1157.10
$1205.82
$1254.54

EV/EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

Low (46x)
Base (47x)
High (48x)
$-33.06
$-33.12
$-33.18

Red / Green Dashboard

Green Factors (Positive)

  • High profit margins (1667.1%)

Red Factors (Concerns)

  • Weak interest coverage (-0.6x)
  • Elevated short interest (11.7% of float)

Assessment: Mixed profile. Balanced positive and negative factors.

Seasoned Analyst Perspective

Valuation Context

MSTR trades at 5.7x TTM P/E and 2.8x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 45.0x TTM and 22.8x Forward P/E. Note: The significant gap between TTM and Forward P/E suggests analysts expect substantial earnings improvement.

Cash Flow Quality

Warning: Negative levered free cash flow indicates the company is consuming cash.

Analyst Consensus

13 analysts cover this stock with a consensus strong_buy rating. Price targets range from $213 to $705, with a mean of $474.

Market Sentiment Indicators

VIX
VIX (Fear Index)

16.38 - Neutral/Low Fear

Neutral/Low Fear
F&G
CNN Fear & Greed Index

Score: 61/100

Greed
SKEW
CBOE SKEW Index (Tail Risk)

143.65

Elevated Tail Risk Concerns
MKT
Market Breadth

SPY YTD: 17.7% | RSP YTD: 12.3%

Moderately Narrow

Supply Chain Analysis

No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.

Earnings Surprise History (Last 8 Quarters)

Track Record: 2 beats, 6 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 25% Beat Rate

DateEPS EstimateEPS ActualResultSurprise %
2025-10-30 $9.67 $8.42 MISS -12.9%
2025-07-31 $6.76 $32.60 BEAT 382.5%
2025-05-01 $-0.02 $-16.53 MISS -70753.0%
2025-02-05 $-0.08 $-3.03 MISS -3507.1%
2024-10-30 $-0.02 $-1.56 MISS -9354.5%
2024-08-01 $-0.02 $-0.76 MISS -3444.2%
2024-04-29 $-0.08 $-0.31 MISS -306.6%
2024-02-06 $0.02 $0.56 BEAT 2534.8%
Average Earnings Surprise: -10557.6% (Company tends to miss estimates)

Analyst Data

Price Targets

High Target $705.00
Mean Target $474.31
Low Target $213.00

Consensus

Recommendation strong_buy
# of Analysts 13

Data Sources & Citations

All financial data sourced from:

Click any blue number throughout the report to view its source.

Disclaimer

This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Why Levered Free Cash Flow Matters

Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.

This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:

A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.

Why Customer & Supplier Earnings Matter

Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.

Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.

Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.

By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.

Why Segment Breakdown Matters

Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.

For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.

Watch for: