Understanding Asset Value

Report Generated
2026-02-02 20:40:21
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
$160.06
Price from Yahoo Finance
Today: -2.75% | YTD: -18.0%

How Oracle Corporation Makes Money

Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance

Revenue
$61.0B
Gross Profit
$41.8B
69% margin
Operating Income
$19.5B
32% margin
Net Income
$15.4B
25% margin

Current Price

Price $160.06
52-Week High $345.72
52-Week Low $118.86

Market Data

Market Cap $459.87B
Shares Outstanding 2.87B
Beta 1.63

Valuation Ratios

P/E (TTM) 30.09x
P/E (Forward) 20.19x
EV/EBITDA 22.29x

Financial Health

Profit Margin 25.3%
ROE 69.0%
Revenue Growth 14.2%

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) - Cash That Can't Lie

$-10.21B -2.22% Yield
$22.30B OCF - $35.48B CapEx - $0.51B Buybacks - $3.85B Interest = $-10.21B

Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense

BUY

Fair Value: $181.41

+13.3% Upside

Stock appears undervalued with 13.3% upside to fair value. Medium confidence based on valuation spread and data quality.

Investment Verdict

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) currently trades at $160.06, representing a 13.3% discount to our calculated fair value of $181.41.

Key Strengths: High profit margins (25.3%); Low short interest; Positive analyst consensus (buy).

Key Risks: High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA: 4.2x).

Wall Street consensus is buy with a mean price target of $279.17.

Business Simplicity Filter

CriterionStatusNotes
≤4 operating segments PASS Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy.
Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue PASS Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K.
≤3 material geographic regions PASS Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions).
No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity REVIEW Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items.

Recommendation: REVIEW COMPLEXITY - Some filters require manual verification

Company Profile

Sector Technology
Employees 162,000
Country United States

Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, as well as AI, Internet-of-Things, machine learning, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support services, and consulting and advanced customer services. It markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation has a strategic alliance with Metron, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Enterprise Value Calculation

Market Capitalization $459.87B
(+) Total Debt $131.73B
(-) Cash & Equivalents $19.77B
Net Debt $111.96B
Enterprise Value $571.84B
EV = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = $459.87B + $131.73B - $19.77B = $571.84B

Leverage & Solvency

MetricValueWhat It Means
Net Debt / EBITDA 4.21x High Leverage - Concern
Interest Coverage 5.1x Strong
Debt / Equity 432.5% High Leverage
Current Ratio 0.91 Review - may struggle with short-term obligations

Overall: Balance sheet shows elevated leverage - requires careful analysis.

Peer Comparison

Industry: Software - Infrastructure | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-02 | Source: Yahoo Finance

CompanyMarket CapP/EForward P/EEV/EBITDAProfit Margin
MSFT $3143.8B 26.5x 22.4x 18.4x 39.0%
ORCL (Target) $459.9B 30.1x 20.2x 22.3x 25.3%
PLTR $352.2B 343.6x 145.9x 392.0x 28.1%
CRM $200.7B 28.1x 16.1x 16.9x 17.9%
NOW $124.5B 70.7x 23.6x 43.3x 13.2%
SNOW $65.3B 0.0x 116.8x -52.9x -30.8%
Peer Average (excl. target) - 28.1x 22.4x 18.4x 23.0%

Intrinsic Value Calculation

MethodInputsFair Value
Equity (TTM EPS) EPS: $5.32 x 34.1x P/E $181.41
Equity (Forward EPS) EPS: $7.93 x 34.1x P/E $270.32
EV-Based (EBITDA) EBITDA: $26.62B x 22.3x $167.63
Headline Fair Value Median value used (spread 49.7% exceeds 15% threshold) $181.41
Fair Multiples Basis: Fair P/E of 34.1x and EV/EBITDA of 22.3x. Multiples adjusted for above-average growth and strong profitability.

Sensitivity Analysis

P/E Multiple Sensitivity (using TTM EPS)

Low (32x)
Base (34x)
High (36x)
$170.77
$181.41
$192.05

EV/EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

Low (21x)
Base (22x)
High (23x)
$158.36
$167.63
$176.89

Red / Green Dashboard

Green Factors (Positive)

  • High profit margins (25.3%)
  • Low short interest
  • Positive analyst consensus (buy)
  • Active share buyback program
  • Dividend yield: 122.00%

Red Factors (Concerns)

  • High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA: 4.2x)

Assessment: Strong positive profile with multiple favorable factors.

Seasoned Analyst Perspective

Valuation Context

ORCL trades at 30.1x TTM P/E and 20.2x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 28.1x TTM and 22.4x Forward P/E.

Cash Flow Quality

Warning: Negative levered free cash flow indicates the company is consuming cash.

Analyst Consensus

35 analysts cover this stock with a consensus buy rating. Price targets range from $155 to $400, with a mean of $279.

Market Sentiment Indicators

VIX
VIX (Fear Index)

16.34 - Neutral/Low Fear

Neutral/Low Fear
F&G
CNN Fear & Greed Index

Score: 61/100

Greed
SKEW
CBOE SKEW Index (Tail Risk)

146.56

Elevated Tail Risk Concerns
MKT
Market Breadth

SPY YTD: 17.7% | RSP YTD: 12.4%

Moderately Narrow

Supply Chain Analysis

No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.

Earnings Surprise History (Last 8 Quarters)

Track Record: 4 beats, 4 misses, 0 in-line out of 8 quarters | 50% Beat Rate

DateEPS EstimateEPS ActualResultSurprise %
2025-12-10 $1.64 $2.26 BEAT 38.0%
2025-09-09 $1.05 $1.01 MISS -3.7%
2025-06-11 $1.64 $1.70 BEAT 3.4%
2025-03-10 $1.49 $1.47 MISS -1.4%
2024-12-09 $1.48 $1.47 MISS -0.8%
2024-09-09 $1.33 $1.39 BEAT 4.3%
2024-06-11 $1.65 $1.63 MISS -1.1%
2024-03-11 $1.38 $1.41 BEAT 2.5%
Average Earnings Surprise: 5.1% (Company tends to beat estimates)

Analyst Data

Price Targets

High Target $400.00
Mean Target $279.17
Low Target $155.00

Consensus

Recommendation buy
# of Analysts 35

Data Sources & Citations

All financial data sourced from:

Click any blue number throughout the report to view its source.

Disclaimer

This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Why Levered Free Cash Flow Matters

Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.

This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:

A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.

Why Customer & Supplier Earnings Matter

Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.

Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.

Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.

By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.

Why Segment Breakdown Matters

Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.

For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.

Watch for: