Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense
Fair Value: $-0.57
-109.7% Downside
Stock appears overvalued with 109.7% downside risk. Consider waiting for better entry point.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) currently trades at $5.91, representing a -109.7% premium to our calculated fair value of $-0.57.
Key Strengths: Active share buyback program.
Key Risks: Weak interest coverage (-6.7x); Unprofitable (negative margins); Significant YTD decline (-27.3%).
The company generates $0.51B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is hold with a mean price target of $9.78.
| Criterion | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ≤4 operating segments | PASS | Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy. |
| Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue | PASS | Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K. |
| ≤3 material geographic regions | PASS | Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions). |
| No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity | PASS | Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items. |
Recommendation: PROCEED TO VALUATION
Snap Inc. operates as a technology company in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers Snapchat, a visual messaging application with various tabs, such as camera, visual messaging, snap map, stories, and spotlight that enable people to communicate visually through short videos and images. It also provides Snapchat+, a subscription service that provides subscribers access to exclusive, experimental, and pre-release features; Spectacles, an eyewear product; and advertising products, including AR ads and Snap ads comprises a single image or video ads, collection ads, dynamic ads, story ads, commercials, sponsored snaps, and promoted places. The company was formerly known as Snapchat, Inc. and changed its name to Snap Inc. in September 2016. Snap Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
| Market Capitalization | $10.16B |
| (+) Total Debt | $4.15B |
| (-) Cash & Equivalents | $2.99B |
| Net Debt | $1.16B |
| Enterprise Value | $11.32B |
| Metric | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt / EBITDA | N/A | N/A |
| Interest Coverage | -6.7x | Weak - Concern |
| Debt / Equity | 186.5% | High Leverage |
| Current Ratio | 3.67 | Healthy - can easily pay short-term bills |
Overall: Balance sheet shows elevated leverage - requires careful analysis.
Industry: Internet Content & Information | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-04 | Source: Yahoo Finance
| Company | Market Cap | P/E | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $4033.8B | 32.9x | 29.6x | 27.9x | 32.2% |
| META | $1692.2B | 28.4x | 18.9x | 17.2x | 30.1% |
| PINS | $13.5B | 7.0x | 10.5x | 37.9x | 49.0% |
| TTD | $13.3B | 31.0x | 13.1x | 19.5x | 15.7% |
| SNAP (Target) | $10.2B | 0.0x | 12.0x | -25.8x | -8.6% |
| Peer Average (excl. target) | - | 31.0x | 16.0x | 23.7x | 31.2% |
| Method | Inputs | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (TTM EPS) | EPS: $-0.29 x 27.9x P/E | $-8.09 |
| Equity (Forward EPS) | EPS: $0.49 x 27.9x P/E | $13.69 |
| EV-Based (EBITDA) | EBITDA: $-0.45B x 21.3x | $-7.32 |
| Headline Fair Value | Average of all methods (spread within threshold) | $-0.57 |
Assessment: Concerning profile. Multiple risk factors present.
SNAP trades at 0.0x TTM P/E and 12.0x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 31.0x TTM and 16.0x Forward P/E.
The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $0.51B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations. The 5.0% LFCF yield is attractive.
36 analysts cover this stock with a consensus hold rating. Price targets range from $7 to $16, with a mean of $10.
18.64 - Neutral/Low Fear
Score: 41/100
143.85
SPY YTD: 14.9% | RSP YTD: 12.4%
No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.
Track Record: 6 beats, 1 misses, 1 in-line out of 8 quarters | 75% Beat Rate
| Date | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Result | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | $-0.12 | $-0.06 | BEAT | 50.6% |
| 2025-08-05 | $0.02 | $0.01 | MISS | -60.1% |
| 2025-04-29 | $-0.13 | $-0.08 | BEAT | 40.3% |
| 2025-02-04 | $0.14 | $0.16 | BEAT | 13.6% |
| 2024-10-29 | $0.05 | $0.08 | BEAT | 55.2% |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.02 | $0.02 | MET | -2.2% |
| 2024-04-25 | $-0.05 | $0.03 | BEAT | 159.7% |
| 2024-02-06 | $-0.17 | $-0.15 | BEAT | 12.2% |
All financial data sourced from:
Click any colored number or source label throughout the report to view its source.
This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.
This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:
A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.
Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.
Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.
Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.
By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.
Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.
For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.
Watch for: