Understanding Asset Value

Analysis Period: Full Fiscal Year 2024 SEC EDGAR
2026-02-06 12:18:55
WU
The Western Union Company
$10.02
Price from Yahoo Finance
Today: -0.15% | YTD: +8.7%

How The Western Union Company Makes Money

Income Statement Flow (TTM) | Source: Yahoo Finance

Revenue
$4.2B
Gross Profit
$1.6B
37% margin
Operating Income
$0.8B
18% margin
Net Income
$0.8B
19% margin

Current Price

Price $10.02
52-Week High $11.95
52-Week Low $7.85

Market Data

Market Cap $3.23B
Shares Outstanding 0.32B
Beta 0.54

Valuation Ratios

P/E (TTM) 3.66x
P/E (Forward) 5.60x
EV/EBITDA 4.95x

Next Earnings Call

No upcoming earnings date found.

Financial Health

Profit Margin 22.2%
ROE 97.7%
Revenue Growth -0.3%

Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) - Cash That Can't Lie

$0.29B 8.85% Yield
$0.54B OCF - $0.14B CapEx - $0.21B Buybacks - $0.14B Interest = $0.29B

Source: Cash Flow Statement | LFCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx - Interest Expense

BUY

Fair Value: $57.62

+475.3% Upside

Stock appears undervalued with 475.3% upside to fair value. High confidence based on valuation spread and data quality.

Investment Verdict

The Western Union Company (WU) currently trades at $10.02, representing a 475.3% discount to our calculated fair value of $57.62.

Key Strengths: Strong balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.6x); High profit margins (22.2%); Active share buyback program.

Key Risks: Declining revenue (-0.3%); Elevated short interest (18.5% of float).

The company generates $0.29B in levered free cash flow annually, providing real cash returns to shareholders. Wall Street consensus is underperform with a mean price target of $9.69.

Business Simplicity Filter

CriterionStatusNotes
≤4 operating segments PASS Segment count estimated from sector classification. Verify in 10-K for accuracy.
Top 2 segments ≥70% of revenue PASS Revenue concentration estimated. Verify segment breakdown in 10-K.
≤3 material geographic regions PASS Most US-listed companies report US vs International (2 regions).
No exotic debt instruments or off-balance-sheet complexity REVIEW Review 10-K for convertibles, derivatives, and off-balance-sheet items.

Recommendation: REVIEW COMPLEXITY - Some filters require manual verification

Company Profile

Industry Credit Services
Employees 9,100
Country United States

The Western Union Company provides money movement and payment services worldwide. It operates through Consumer Money Transfer and Consumer Services segments. The Consumer Money Transfer segment facilitates money transfers for international cross-border and intra-country transfers, primarily through a network of retail agent and owned locations, as well as through websites and mobile devices. The Consumer Services segments offers bill payment services, money order and media network services, retail foreign exchange services, prepaid cards, lending partnerships, and digital wallets. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Enterprise Value Calculation

Market Capitalization $3.23B
(+) Total Debt $2.95B
(-) Cash & Equivalents $1.47B
Net Debt $1.48B
Enterprise Value $4.71B
EV = Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash = $3.23B + $2.95B - $1.47B = $4.71B

Leverage & Solvency

MetricValueWhat It Means
Net Debt / EBITDA 1.55x Strong
Interest Coverage 5.5x Strong
Debt / Equity 280.1% High Leverage
Current Ratio 0.30 Review - may struggle with short-term obligations

Overall: Balance sheet is adequate with some areas to monitor.

Peer Comparison

Industry: Credit Services | Data: TTM (Trailing 12 Months) as of 2026-02-06 | Source: Yahoo Finance

CompanyMarket CapP/EForward P/EEV/EBITDAProfit Margin
V $632.6B 30.8x 22.6x 21.8x 50.2%
MA $483.0B 32.8x 24.0x 24.4x 45.6%
AXP $248.2B 23.4x 18.0x 0.0x 16.2%
PYPL $37.4B 7.4x 6.8x 4.9x 15.8%
WU (Target) $3.2B 4.4x 5.6x 5.0x 18.8%
DFS N/A 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0%
Peer Average (excl. target) - 27.1x 22.6x 23.1x 30.9%

Intrinsic Value Calculation

MethodInputsFair Value
Equity (TTM EPS) EPS: $2.74 x 24.4x P/E $66.86
Equity (Forward EPS) EPS: $1.79 x 24.4x P/E $43.63
EV-Based (EBITDA) EBITDA: $0.95B x 20.8x $57.62
Headline Fair Value Median value used (spread 41.5% exceeds 15% threshold) $57.62
Fair Multiples Basis: Fair P/E of 24.4x and EV/EBITDA of 20.8x. Multiples adjusted for below-average growth.

Sensitivity Analysis

P/E Multiple Sensitivity (using TTM EPS)

Low (22x)
Base (24x)
High (26x)
$61.38
$66.86
$72.34

EV/EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

Low (20x)
Base (21x)
High (22x)
$54.62
$57.62
$60.61

Red / Green Dashboard

Green Factors (Positive)

  • Strong balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.6x)
  • High profit margins (22.2%)
  • Active share buyback program
  • Dividend yield: 9.37%

Red Factors (Concerns)

  • Declining revenue (-0.3%)
  • Elevated short interest (18.5% of float)

Assessment: Moderately positive profile. Green factors outweigh concerns.

Seasoned Analyst Perspective

Valuation Context

WU trades at 3.7x TTM P/E and 5.6x Forward P/E. This compares to peer averages of 27.1x TTM and 22.6x Forward P/E.

Cash Flow Quality

The company generates positive levered free cash flow of $0.29B, demonstrating its ability to generate real cash after all obligations. The 8.8% LFCF yield is attractive.

Analyst Consensus

13 analysts cover this stock with a consensus underperform rating. Price targets range from $7 to $17, with a mean of $10.

Market Sentiment Indicators

VIX
VIX (Fear Index)

18.05 - Neutral/Low Fear

Neutral/Low Fear
F&G
CNN Fear & Greed Index

Score: 43/100

Fear
SKEW
CBOE SKEW Index (Tail Risk)

137.16

Elevated Tail Risk Concerns
MKT
Market Breadth

SPY YTD: 14.8% | RSP YTD: 13.1%

Healthy Breadth

Supply Chain Analysis

No customer/supplier data available for this company. Data is curated from SEC 10-K filings for major tech companies.

Analyst Data

Price Targets

High Target $17.00
Mean Target $9.69
Low Target $7.00

Consensus

Recommendation underperform
# of Analysts 13

Data Sources & Citations

Yahoo Finance
SEC EDGAR
CBOE
CNN
Derived / Calculated

All financial data sourced from:

Click any colored number or source label throughout the report to view its source.

Disclaimer

This analysis is generated automatically using publicly available data and should not be considered as financial advice. All figures are sourced from Yahoo Finance and SEC EDGAR and may contain inaccuracies. Always verify data with primary sources (SEC filings, company IR) before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Run Analysis with Different Period

Current: Full Fiscal Year 2024 | Data Source: SEC EDGAR

Why Levered Free Cash Flow Matters

Levered FCF is cash that can't be faked. Unlike earnings which can be manipulated through accounting (depreciation schedules, revenue recognition, etc.), cash flow is simple: the money is either in the bank or it's not.

This metric shows how much actual cash the company generates after paying for:

A company with strong Levered FCF can pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt, or invest in growth - all from real cash, not accounting profits.

Why Customer & Supplier Earnings Matter

Customers and suppliers report earnings BEFORE the company you're analyzing. Their results give you early signals about demand and supply chain health.

Customer Example: If Microsoft (AMD customer) beats revenue estimates by 20%, it likely means they bought more chips than analysts expected. This is bullish for AMD's upcoming earnings.

Supplier Example: If TSMC (AMD supplier) reports strong demand from AMD, that confirms AMD's production is ramping up.

By the time AMD reports, you already have data points from 5+ related companies. Smart analysts piece these together to predict earnings before they're announced.

Why Segment Breakdown Matters

Not all revenue is equal. Different business segments have different growth rates and profit margins.

For example, AMD's Data Center segment has ~40% margins while Gaming might be ~15%. A shift toward Data Center means higher overall profitability even if total revenue stays flat.

Watch for: